美国2月PPI数据意外超预期 比特币七天内五创新高后跌破7万美元
2024-03-15
更新时间:2024-03-15 16:58:29作者:橙橘网
随着俄乌冲突持续,俄罗斯与西方国家仍处于历史低点的对抗阶段,如何从中破局依旧是留给俄罗斯的一道难题。
在3月初举行的“2024·中俄三亚对话”期间,曾任俄罗斯联邦驻中国大使的俄罗斯外交官安德烈·杰尼索夫接受北京对话(Beijing Club for International Dialogue)专访,就其在中国任职期间的感悟进行交流,同时也就中俄关系、国际秩序、俄罗斯所面临的困境、金砖国家扩员做出了展望。
前俄罗斯驻华大使安德烈·杰尼索夫接受北京对话(Beijing Club for International Dialogue)专访
韩桦:您职业生涯大部分时间是在中国任职的,其中令您印象最深刻的回忆是什么?这段经历对您的职业生涯有何影响?
安德烈·杰尼索夫:我和中国打了半个多世纪的交道,准确来说是51年。我第一次来中国是1973年,当时还是一名学生。但我不是为了学习中文,而是作为一名中文翻译进行专业实践。
从那时起,我目睹了中国在上世纪70年代、80年代、90年代以及到现在的许多变化。其中最大的变化在于整个国家生态的变化,这不仅仅是经济、科技进步层面,还有中国老百姓生活的变化。
坦率地说,我还记得1970年代无论是在城镇,还是在农村,中国人民的生活并不那么富足,普通百姓的收入都很低。但1978年我第二次访华,正式开启外交官生涯,正值改革开放政策刚刚起飞,我以独特的视角目睹了这些变化,因此最深刻的印象就是中国社会的巨大进步。
韩桦:作为前俄罗斯驻华大使,您如何看待中俄关系的现状?您认为中俄关系在将来会得到加强还是将面临挑战?
安德烈·杰尼索夫:中俄关系的发展势头非常好,希望我本人对这一进程也尽到一些绵薄之力。
我2013年开始担任俄罗斯驻华大使,一直到2022年,将近10年。对于大使来说,这是一段很长的任职时间,但我到中国之前已经做好了充分的准备,因为我此前在中国待了十余年,担任过使馆初级工作人员、商务处代表职员、翻译、年轻外交官等职务。
我每一次往返中国都看到了很大的进步,不仅是中国的国内环境,还有自1980年代末中苏关系正常化后我们双边关系的进步。1990年代起,我们的关系也在稳步快速发展。正如两国领导人所说,现在我们的双边关系已经达到了历史最高水平。我也是这一进程的见证者之一。
2024年2月2日,俄罗斯布拉戈维申斯克市,俄罗斯演员演唱歌曲《我爱你中国》(图源:视觉中国)
韩桦:您目前担任俄罗斯参议员。您认为普京前几天国情咨文中,涉及对华关系最重要的内容是什么?
安德烈·杰尼索夫:我认为普京证实了俄罗斯的政策是稳固的、平衡的,并且是面向未来的。因此,我认为在普京的领导下,我们两个国家、两个民族、中国人民和俄罗斯人民之间的友谊与合作将以良好的态势发展下去。
韩桦:俄乌冲突结束后,中俄关系会发生变化吗?
安德烈·杰尼索夫:我认为不会,因为我们两国的关系并不取决于世界其他地区的局势,也不取决于其他国家。在推进合作的同时,我们有各自的目标,也建立了自己的合作平台,因此不取决于任何外部环境因素。
韩桦:纵观俄罗斯的历史,特别是自彼得大帝统治以来,俄罗斯与西方国家多次出现时而友好,时而对抗的阶段。您认为目前的相对对抗阶段将持续多久?
安德烈·杰尼索夫:(俄罗斯与西方的关系)就像大海中的浪潮,有涨有落。如今我们与西方国家的关系几乎到了谷底,但这种关系持续的时间只取决于西方国家,尤其是美国。
我年龄不小了,见证过我们与西方国家、与欧洲国家、与美国、与日本等国关系的不同阶段。我们曾经有过关系相对良好的时期,但这种良好关系阶段总是非常脆弱的。现在,正如我所说的,我们与西方关系已经跌入谷底。但我们必须像中国人所说的那样,“站得更高一些,看得更远一些”。
我希望有朝一日,我们能与世界某些地区的伙伴恢复正常关系,因为在现代化、全球化的世界中,不论是经济还是文化层面,相互依存的程度非常高。这就是为什么我认为当前的情况是不正常的,正常的情况应是恢复关系。我们不需要西方的任何特殊待遇、特殊态度或特殊的友好关系,我们只希望寻求建立正常的关系,以造福双方人民。
韩桦:您所说的正常关系是否包括新的安全秩序?俄罗斯一再强调对北约主导的欧洲安全秩序感到不满。您认为俄罗斯希望在欧洲或全世界出现什么样的安全秩序?
安德烈·杰尼索夫:作为一个国家,俄罗斯的诉求并不过分。我们唯一需要的是安全保障,以发展我们的国家,提高人民的生活水平,并且与邻国和世界其他国家保持良好的关系和友好的合作。这些都是非常朴素的期望。
这就是为什么我们非常关注俄罗斯人民和国家的安全保障。如果没有威胁,那我们就不存在这方面的担忧,但我国人民和政府有权自行判断和决定自己是否感受到威胁。我们能感受到威胁来自北约,来自西方国家,它们想要当霸主,想要在与俄罗斯的关系中占上风。但我们唯一想要的是公平和平等。如果我们实现了关系上的公平、平等,双方都能考虑到对方安全和安保所面临的威胁,那么我们就能实现与其他国家、与我们的邻国恢复正常关系的目标。俄罗斯永远不会从欧洲地理版图上消失,我们的邻国也永远不会消失。因此,我们必须以正常、睦邻、没有敌意和霸权的方式构建关系。
韩桦:您认为俄罗斯等国具体可以采取哪些措施来对抗由北约主导的安全秩序?
安德烈·杰尼索夫:我们唯一能做的就是试图说服我们的邻国,他们的做法是不合理的。他们永远无法强迫俄罗斯陷入地球大家庭中“低级别成员”的地位。我们有权成为其中平等的一员,坐在同一桌上。从这个角度来看,我认为当我们达成这种共同认知,当我们的邻国意识到不能像对待下属那样对待俄罗斯时,我们就可能达成期待的目标。
韩桦:今年的金砖国家峰会将在俄罗斯举办,您会关注什么,全世界应该关注什么?
安德烈·杰尼索夫:金砖国家是一个相对年轻的国际组织,2015年前才诞生。去年,金砖国家成员数量翻了一番,从5个增加到10个。俄罗斯在金砖组织发展的关键之年担任主席国,因为我们今年必须明确在扩员后的新基础上,如何进一步发展,如何与那些已表示希望加入金砖的国家打交道——已经有超过20国有意加入金砖。因此,我们必须在当前10个成员国的框架内建设新的论坛架构、制定新的运作规则以及新的目标。
金砖国家扩员定将强化世界多极形成的趋势(图源:俄罗斯卫星通讯社)
其次,我们必须讨论一些实际问题,以帮助金砖10个成员国生存。当然,“生存”一词主要适用于我国,也许对其他国家来说是为了建立更美好的世界。例如,我们可以推行更紧密的经济合作、金融关系,帮助我们不再高度依赖其他国家、国际金融和货币体系,以互惠互利的方式发展经济。因此,这些就是我国今年担任金砖国家主席国的主要目标。
韩桦:您提到金砖国家的十个成员国可能有不同的关注点。俄罗斯关注的可能是“生存”,其他国家则可能是经济发展。如何协调这种差异?
安德烈·杰尼索夫:关注根本利益问题。金砖国家存在分歧,无论是以前的五国,还是现在的十国,都各自不同,但共同点是都是大国,在各自的地区具有显著影响力。金砖国家在实现和平、稳定、发展和相互合作,为人民提供福祉方面有着基本相同的利益。我们可以作为一个团队协同处理问题。
韩桦:西方制裁对您作为外交官的工作有何影响?新任外交官需应对当今愈发复杂的国际环境,您对他们的工作有何建议?
安德烈·杰尼索夫:这要看情况。我年轻的时候,外交官面临的是更开放的世界,我访问欧美国家时没有遇到任何问题。10到20年前,我曾在美国工作过一段时间,而现在则存在一些限制、障碍和不公平的规定,对俄罗斯的一些年轻外交官来说,外交生活并不容易,也并不顺利,不过我本人现在已经退休了。
对俄罗斯和其他国家年轻外交官,我能给出的最好建议,同时也是首要原则就是尽心为国服务。外交职业非常有趣,对于年轻人来说,经常旅行,到其他国家生活,看看那里人民如何生活,学习外语等都是非常有帮助的。因此,这是一个有趣的职业,虽然这一过程中会出现一些麻烦、障碍和困难,甚至可能是艰苦,因为有相当多的国家正在发生战争,无法保障你的人身安全。但外交的存在是非常重要的,各国外交官都必须在世界各地为各自的国家服务。因此,年轻人最好对这些困难有所准备,但也应该清楚地认识到,外交生涯中趣味比麻烦更多。
韩桦:美国国务卿布林肯在慕尼黑安全会议上提到,“如果你不在国际体系的谈判桌上,你就会出现在菜单上”。吴海龙大使提到了这一点,并就国务卿的评论发表了一些看法,而您刚才说,俄罗斯并没有很大的诉求,只是想以平等的伙伴而非“低级别成员”身份回到谈判桌前。您如何看待布林肯关于谈判桌和菜单的评论?
安德烈·杰尼索夫:这取决于谈判桌上的其他国家。布林肯说,有些国家能平等坐在谈判桌边,有人则没有。对此,俄罗斯外交部长回答说,如果你把其他国家视为不应该坐在谈判桌上的“低级别成员”,那么坐在桌边的国家需要注意不要噎着。如果桌子是圆的,那么各方的地位就应该平等。
(翻页查看英文版)
(采访开始前,安德烈大使先用中文和读者打招呼)
Andrei Denisov:各位朋友们、女士们、先生们,晚上好。很高兴有这样一个难得的机会,在冬末春初来到海南岛。我在中国住的时间比较长,一共20多年,好几次来过海南省,但最后一次是十年以前,这次来看到有很多变化。我本身的感觉还是非常好的,因为上有钱塘,下有海南岛。今天,就是3月2号,春天已经到了,中国人说春回大地,万物复苏,所以我特别高兴有机会重新来到海南。
Han Hua: Much of your career has been spent in China. What is your favorite recollection from that time? How do you think that experience has shaped your career?
Andrei Denisov: I've been dealing with China professionally for more than half a century, 51 years to be precise. My first visit here was as long ago as 1973, when I was still a student. It was not for studying Chinese, but professional practice as a Chinese interpreter.
From that time on, I've witnessed a lot of changes in this country in the 70s, in 80s, 90s and right now. The greatest thing I've seen here is the changes of the whole life in China, not only economics, not only scientific and technological progress, but changes to the life of ordinary people of China. I still remember the 1970s when life here was not so good, to be quite frank, because income of ordinary people, both in in towns, in the cities and in rural areas were very low. But my second visit, my second term in China as a diplomat was in 1978. So I had a unique chance to witness the launching point, the starting point of Chinese reforms,改革开放政策,刚刚起飞。
So that's why my greatest impression from my stay in China, 20 years if not more in total, is the unique progress of the whole Chinese society.
Han Hua: Being the former Russian ambassador to China, how do you perceive the current state of China Russia relations? And do you see them strengthening or facing challenges in the near future?
Andrei Denisov: No, I think that the Russian Chinese relationship are developing in a very good shape, and I modestly hope that my very small personal contribution in this process does exist as well.
I arrived in China as ambassador in year 2013 and stayed here until 2022, a little bit less than 10 years. It's a long time, even for an ambassador, but I was well prepared to come to China because I had previously spent over 10 years here when I was younger. I was not ambassador from the very beginning. I was junior staff of the embassy, of the trade mission, worked as interpreter and as a young diplomat.
I have come and gone to China, and every time we've seen a lot of progress, not only in Chinese domestic affairs, but in our bilateral relations since late 1980s, after normalization of the Soviet Union and China's relationship, 正常化. From 1990s, the progress in our relationship was also steady and rapid. And right now, as our leaders say, we have reached the highest ever level in history of bilateral collaboration. And I can only appreciate that I was one of the witnesses of that progress.
Han Hua: You are now a Russian senator. What do you think is the most important part of Putin’s state-of-the-nation address the day before yesterday in terms of relations with China?
Andrei Denisov: I think that Putin has just confirmed the fact that Russia's policy is steady, is stable and is aimed at future. From that point of view, it's absolutely obvious to me that under Putin's leadership, the friendship and cooperation between two countries, between two nations, between China's people and Russia's people will go on in a good shape.
Han Hua: Will Sino Russian relations change after the end of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine? How will it be different, if any?
Andrei Denisov: No, I think not, because the relationship of our two countries does not depend on the situations in other parts of the world and doesn't depend on other countries. While advancing in the cooperation, we'll have our own objectives, we have our own platform for such cooperation and it doesn't depend on any outside influences.
Han Hua: Throughout the history of Russia, especially since Peter the Great, Russia has seen alternating periods of engagement and confrontation with the West. How long do you think the current period of relative confrontation will last?
Andrei Denisov: They are just like waves in the sea, there are ups and downs. Now we have almost reached the bottom in relations with Western countries. It depends on Western countries only, on the United States in particular.
First of all, I'm an old man. I've seen different periods in our relationship with western countries, with the European countries, with the United States, with countries like Japan. There were periods of relatively good relations, but that goodness was very fragile. Now we have reached, as I said, the bottom. But we have to stand, as Chinese people say, 站得更高一些,看得更远一些。
My hope is that one day or another, we’ll come back to a normal relationship with our partners in other parts of the world, because in the modern world, global world, the level of mutual dependency is very high, economically and culturally. That's why I think the current situation is abnormal, and normal situation should be the restoration of those relationship.s We don't need any special approach, special attitude or special friendly relationship, we just want normal relationship for the benefits of both sides, of the people living there and here, in my country and in other countries.
Han Hua: Does this normal relations in your description include a new security order? Russia has repeatedly stressed that it is unhappy with the NATO dominated security order in Europe. What is a security order that Russia would like to see in Europe or around the world?
Andrei Denisov: Russia, as a country, is very modest in its aspirations. The only thing we need is safety and security for us just to develop our country, to increase the living standards of our people and to live in good relationship and friendly cooperation with neighboring countries and other countries of the world. So very modest and very normal aspirations.
That's why we are concerned with the safety and security of our people of Russia, of my country, of my nation. And if there is no threat, then there is no concern. But it's the right of my people, of my country to judge and to say whether we feel threat or not. We feel threat coming from NATO, from western countries which want to dominate, want to play the upper hand in a relationship with my country. The only thing we want is fairness and equality. If we reach fairness, equality and mutual concern regarding the threats to our safety and security, well, fine. I think then we’ll reach the goal of restoring normal relationships with other countries, with our neighbors, with whom we lived for centuries in close proximity. We will never disappear from the European geographic map, and our neighbors will never disappear. So we have to live together and we have to build up our relationship in a normal way, in a good neighborly way, without hostility and without domination.
Han Hua: Specifically, what kind of measures do you think Russia and its counterpart can take towards avoiding this NATO dominated security order?
Andrei Denisov: Well, the only thing we can do is to convince, to persuade our neighbors that their approach is unreasonable. They will never force Russia to be like the junior member of a family. No, we have the moral right to be equals, sitting around the table. And from that point of view, I think when we reach such mutual understanding, when our neighbors realize that there is no way to deal with Russia like we’re junior or subordinate, then probably we’ll reach what we want to reach.
Han Hua: Speaking of the good living of people, what will you be watching for this year's BRICS summit in Russia, and what should the world be watching for?
Andrei Denisov: BRICS is a relatively young international forum, it’s only 15 years old. Last year, the number of BRICS members doubled, from five to 10 now. Russia undertakes the presidency of BRICS in the crucial year of its development, since we have to determine how should we develop further on the new basis of an expanded membership, and how to deal with those countries who want to and have expressed their wish to join that forum; there is quite a big number, 20 if not more. So we have to build up new structures of our forum, new rules of functioning and discussing new objectives in the current 10 members framework.
Secondly, we have to discuss some practical issues, which will help all 10 members of BRICS to survive. For my country, we can say to survive, maybe for other countries it’s to live in a better world. For example, we can push for tighter economic cooperation, financial relations, which will help us not to be so highly dependent on other countries for international financial and monetary systems, to build our economies in a mutually beneficial way. So those are the key objectives for the presidency of my country in BRICS for this year, 2024.
Han Hua: You mentioned that ten BRICS member countries might have different agendas. For Russia, it might be to survive. For other countries, it might be economic development. How do you coordinate this difference?
Andrei Denisov: To my mind, basic interest matters. Yes, we have differences. BRICS countries, either 5 as it was before, or 10 as it is now, are rather different countries, but they are all big countries. They play influential roles in their respective regions of the globe. And from that point of view, they have mutual and basically identical interest in achieving peace, stability, development and mutual cooperation to provide better life for their peoples. So from that point of view, we can get together and we can deal as one team.
Han Hua: How have western sanctions affected your work as a diplomat broadly? What is your advice to new diplomat in navigating today's complex world?
Andrei Denisov: Well, it depends. When I was younger, I enjoyed a much more open world for people like me. I have had no problems in visiting other countries in Europe, in the United States. I worked in the United States for some time, 10, 20 years ago. Now, there are some limitations and obstacles, there are some unfair regulations; diplomatic life for some of my younger colleagues (because I'm a retired diplomat now) are not so easy and not so well going. The best advice to my younger colleagues both in my country and other countries as well, is to serve their nation and their country, and put that principle in the first place.
A diplomatic career is very interesting. It helps young people just to travel a lot, to live in other countries, to see how people live there, to study foreign languages. So it's an interesting career. Yes, there are some troubles, yes there are some obstacles, yes there are some difficulties, hardships even, because there is quite a number of countries where wars are going on or the whole situation is not so good from the point of view of personal safety and security. But diplomatic presence is very important, and we and our Chinese colleagues and people from other countries have to serve their countries in different parts of the world. So it's better for young people to be prepared for such troubles, and clearly understand that the interesting moments of a diplomatic career overweigh these troubles.
Han Hua: Secretary Blinken mentioned in the Munich Security Conference that if you're not on the table, you're on the menu. Ambassador Wu Hailong mentioned this and made some comments about the Secretary of State’s words; just now you said Russia does not have special aspirations, Russia just want to go back to the table not as a junior member, but as an equal partner. How do you see Blinken’s comments regarding tables and menus?
Andrei Denisov: It depends on our partners around the table. But when Blinken said that some are equal around the table and some are not, my foreign minister replied, beware of choking, sitting around such a table where you consider others as juniors who are not there to be seated. If the table is round, then everybody must be in an equal position.
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